Sunday, November 16, 2014

GP NJ Top 16 Analysis

I was interested in looking over the numbers from GP NJ, threw this together in about half an hour.  Don't expect any deep conclusions, but I found the maindeck card breakdowns very interesting and I thought other people might as well

Top 16 Decklists

Archetype Breakdown

  • 3 Miracles
  • 2 Jeskai Stoneblade
  • 1 ANT
  • 1 Infect
  • 1 U/R Delver
  • 1 U/R Landstill
  • 1 MUD
  • 1 Omni-Tell
  • 1 Jeskai Delver
  • 1 Elves
  • 1 Sneak and Show
  • 1 Grixis Pyromancer
  • 1 Sultai Delver

Top 8 Maindeck Card Breakdown

(# out of a possible 32)
  • 28 Brainstorm
  • 7 Pyroblast (or Red Elemental Blast)
  • 10 Treasure Cruise
  • 2 Dig Through Time
  • 23 Force of Will
  • 7 Wasteland 
  • 0 Tarmogoyf

Top 16 Maindeck Card Breakdown

(# out of a possible 64)
  • 56 Brainstorm
  • 51 Force of Will
  • 15 Pyroblast (or Red Elemental Blast)
  • 21 Treasure Cruise
  • 10 Dig Through Time
  • 15 Wasteland 
  • 4 Tarmogoyf

Notes/Conclusions

  • There was significantly less Treasure Cruise/Dig Through Time in the top 16 than I expected.  My initial thought was that the prevalence of maindeck pyroblast might have something to do that, but the dominance of Brainstorm makes that conclusion look fairly flimsy.  If you look at the actual decklists, it becomes clear the Treasure Cruise is an incredible card in Delver decks that previously would run out of cards, but that blue control and combo decks have better tools to accomplish their goals.  Dig Through Time fills that slot in some of them, but either way Treasure Cruise doesn't seem to be the multi-archetype all-star it has been rumored to be.  
  • 14 decks maindecking 4 Brainstorm in the top 16.  Time for your regularly scheduled reminder that Treasure Cruise isn't actually the problem.  When it comes to a 15 round tournament, the consistency Brainstorm has to offer simply can't be matched or eclipsed.
  • 15 Maindeck Pyroblasts in the top 16.  7 players maindecked two, one player maindecked one.  Neither of the two nonblue decks that made the top 8 played Pyroblast.  Four decks (the 3 Miracles decks and one of the Jeskai Stoneblade decks) appeared to be playing red ENTIRELY for Pyroblast.  Even though all four had incidental red cards in the sideboard (Wear/Tear and Pyroclasm) it's incredibly unlikely any of them would've splashed for red for those sideboard cards alone since similar but less efficient effects exist in the colors they were already in.
  • I've been an outspoken critic of the lack of ability to brew in legacy for a while lately, but Eli Kassis and Lam Phan did a pretty impressive job of going outside the box and getting rewarded for it here.  If you're willing to limit your brewing to decks that contain Brainstorm and Force of Will, there may still be room to do neat stuff.
  • This is the fewest Wastelands I've seen in a top 16 of any major event in as long as I can remember. 

Edit History:

  • Added Wasteland to the maindeck card breakdown
  • Added Tarmogoyf to the maindeck card breakdown

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