Monday, July 18, 2016

How Bad Was Mental Misstep, Really?

This is a repost of a breakdown I did re: Mental Misstep and how bad it was, back when we were discussing how bad Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time were, and whether they needed to be banned.
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Figured I'd put a little effort into answering this question, since I was curious. Here's what I found.

Misstep
Here are the top 16 decklists from the last 3 SCG Opens before Misstep was banned.
SCG Atlanta - September 10-11
Top 16 Decklists
  • Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 11
  • Blue Decks with 3 Misstep - 2
  • Blue Decks with 2 Misstep - 0
  • Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 0
  • Non-Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 2
SCG Boston- August 20-21
Top 16 Decklists
  • Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 9
  • Blue Decks with 3 Misstep - 5
  • Blue Decks with 2 Misstep - 0
  • Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 0
  • Non-Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 0
  • Non-Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 2 Misstep (board) - 1
SCG Richmond - August 13-14
Top 16 Decklists
  • Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 5
  • Blue Decks with 3 Misstep - 2
  • Blue Decks with 2 Misstep, 3rd in Board - 1
  • Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 6
Cruise / Dig
Compare that to the 3 tournaments we've had with TC/DTT valid. Obviously the first two weeks nobody but Bob believed in Cruise, so you can mostly ignore those, but I went to the effort of calculating them so I included them.
SCG Worcester - October 18-19
Top 16 Decklists[4]
  • Blue Decks with 4 Cruise - 4
  • Blue Decks with 3 Cruise - 2
  • Blue Decks with 2 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Dig - 1
  • Blue Decks with 0 Cruise, 0 Dig - 4
  • Non-Blue Decks - 5
SCG New Jersey - September 27-28
Top 16 Decklists[5]
  • Blue Decks with 4 Cruise - 1
  • Blue Decks with 3 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Cruise - 1
  • Blue Decks with 2 Dig - 0
  • Blue Decks with 1 Dig - 1
  • Blue Decks with 0 Cruise, 0 Dig - 7
  • Non-Blue Decks - 6
SCG Indianapolis - September 27-28
Top 16 Decklists[6]
  • Blue Decks with 4 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 3 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Dig - 1
  • Blue Decks with 1 Dig - 0
  • Blue Decks with 0 Cruise, 0 Dig - 7
  • Non-Blue Decks - 8
Conclusions
  • Misstep really did dominate the format. I'd almost let myself forget how crazy it was, this was a good exercise.
  • Cruise could be on it's way to the same fate, but it's not there yet. Obviously there's a big shift from the first week of availability, but I don't nkow that we can expect that pace to continue.
  • Importantly, there really wasn't a good nonblue way to fight misstep, while a deck like Death and Taxes may still have good ways to fight cruise (Thalia makes it harder to cantrip your way to a full graveyard, for example).
  • Small sample size, of course, but if you look at the two tournaments the weekend of September 27/28, you'll notice that we actually had a pretty decent blend of nonblue decks and blue decks. We should keep an eye on things going forward and see how much that changes as a result of Cruise and Dig.

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