Sunday, August 6, 2017

Show and Tell in the board of BR Reanimator

In January I played BR Reanimator at GP Louisville (you can see my tournament report here).  As preparation for that, I tested a variety of different sideboard plans, including a white splash for Wear/Tear, a green splash for Abrupt Decay and Reverent Silence, and several transformative sideboards into threats that didn't use the graveyard, like hardcasting Grave Titan with Lake of the Dead, or casting Pack Rat and Young Pyromancer.  Ultimately, I settled on splashing blue for Show and Tell.

I went 10-5 at that event, which isn't groundbreaking but was still a record I was fairly happy with.  Since that event it seems like reddit gets a post about every two weeks by someone considering BR reanimator and asking about the right sideboard options, and since I'm getting tired of writing out my thoughts every time, I figured I'd just make the case for Show and Tell once and for all.

The original list I played is available in my tournament report.  If I were sleeving the deck up today, this is what I would play. 


Spells Lands
Creatures
4 Griselbrand
4 Chancellor of the Annex
1 Sire of Insanity
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
Reanimation
4 Reanimate
4 Exhume
3 Animate Dead
Discard Outlets
4 Faithless Looting
4 Entomb
Discard
4 Unmask
2 Thoughtseize
2 Collective Brutality
Fast Mana
4 Dark Ritual
4 Lotus Petal
4 Polluted Delta
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Badlands
1 Underground Sea
2 Swamp
Sideboard
4 Show and Tell
3 Blood Moon
2 Echoing Truth
2 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Collective Brutality
1 Firestorm
1 Tidespout Tyrant
1 Grave Titan

I still don't like Tidespout Tyrant as much in BR as I do in UB, mostly because he's not that great unless you've drawn a bunch of cards with Griselbrand, but finding the space for other cards means I need a more universal catch-all, and he's the best at that.  If you find you have the space, I still prefer Blazing Archon + Ashen Rider, as both accomplish what you want when reanimated without needing a followup spell.  Unfortunately you need both slots to accomplish what Tidespout will do on his own, so when space is at a premium Tidespout gets the call.  In this case, I've added an additional Deathrite answer to the board (the 3rd Collective Brutality) due to his metagame omnipresence.

Why Show and Tell?


Against some decks, fighting the permanents is difficult. You have to assemble 3 cards (the discard outlet, the reanimation spell, and the hate answer) instead of just two, and that hate answer is usually no more than a 4of, and often just a 3of in your non-brainstorm deck. Answering multiple copies can be even harder (someone opens on two leylines, for example, and you're probably just dead). Show and Tell (and also Stronghold Gambit) skirts this and instead puts you back on a two card combo against all of the hate except Containment Priest.

The decks that are most likely to bring in permanent based hate against you are the ones where you want to skirt the hate entirely. I'm largely talking about non-Delver Deathrite decks (Elves/Maverick), 4C Loam, Eldrazi, etc.  Fighting permanent based hate against these decks can be an exercise in futility.  While you're digging for an answer to Deathrite they cast Scavenging Ooze, and while you're looking for an answer to him they play Knight of the Reliquary and you have to respect the potential for Bojuka Bog.  Since these decks are all creature-heavy, Show and Tell is significantly better than Stronghold Gambit (the next best option for skirting the hate).

I side in 4 Show and Tell and 2 Echoing Truth in those matchups, which means you do have a universal answer to whatever they might have if you don't draw Show and Tell. You also never get stuck holding decay and staring at Leyline or holding Wear/Tear and staring at Deathrite or Priest.

Show and Tell isn't a universal sideboard plan.  It's not something you bring in against every deck.  In matchups that revolve around countermagic and graveyard hate that is cast from hand you're just better off  playing your regular game.  You are already prepared to fight that kind of interaction with your discard.  Don't pitch Griselbrand to Faithless Looting all willy-nilly on turn 1 hoping they don't have Surgical and you'll be fine.  For a more detailed sideboard plan, click here.

The biggest question I get asked is "Doesn't this mess up my gameplan?  How do I know if I'm supposed to discard the reanimation target to faithless looting if I don't have Show and Tell or a Reanimation spell handy?"   Obviously yes, it does have an impact on sequencing.  That said, I feel like I get this question a lot more from people who are accustomed to playing Brainstorm and Ponder in their combo decks, where you're looking for each piece individually.  In a combo deck like this, without access to a plethora of library manipulation, you're not looking for individual cards, you're looking for a plan.  You should be mulliganing to a plan.  Postboard the graveyard is not a safe space for your reanimation targets to just hang out anyway, so you shouldn't be discarding things you will want access to until you're ready to use them anyway.  It's for this reason that I side out Faithless Looting in some matchups, matchups where I don't have time to cantrip into answers and my graveyard isn't a safe place to leave a creature for an entire turn cycle.

Yes, you will have hands with Entomb and Show and Tell.  Try not to compare those hands to Entomb and Exhume, but instead compare them to Entomb and Abrupt Decay, or Entomb and Wear/Tear, since those are the other options for those sideboard slots.  You're no more likely to successfully combo off with Entomb and Abrupt Decay than you are with Entomb and Show and Tell.  On the other hand, your significantly more likely to combo off with Griselbrand and Show and Tell than with Griselbrand and Abrupt Decay.

I'm not sold, what next?


What finally made up my mind was tracking how my sideboard worked in games.  Every postboard game will fit into one of the following five categories:

  1. I didn't draw my anti-hate, but I won anyway
  2. I didn't draw my anti-hate and I lost
  3. I drew my anti-hate, but didn't need it and I won anyway
  4. I drew my anti-hate, but it wasn't good enough and I still lost
  5. I drew my anti-hate and used it to win
In my testing, I won a decent amount of games with the white and green splashes, but those games almost always fell into categories  #1 and #3.  Very, very rarely did I see a game that fit into category #5.  That's when I started seriously exploring other options, because clearly the cards I was playing weren't a factor in whether I won or lost.  In fact, I lost some games that fell into the category of #4 where I drew too much anti-hate and not enough actual combo pieces to win, where the sideboard cards actively detracted from trying to win.

If you're not sold on Show and Tell, try playing your preferred strategy for a while and keeping track of your postboard results.  This deck is definitely one that plays out differently depending on your playstyle, so you might have different results than I did.

A final note on BR vs UB


Often when I'm talking about this strategy people bring up just playing UB across the board.  I usually push back against that because I don't see BR as UB's unwanted stepchild, but a deck with it's own strengths and weaknesses.

BR Reanimator and UB Reanimator are fundamentally different decks that attack different metagames. One is not better than the other in a core way, they're just better at different times because they have different strengths and weaknesses. Distilled to one word each, BR Reanimator is about speed and UB reanimator is about consistency. In a format where you have to beat Rest in Peace, Speed is more important. In my opinion this is why BR Reanimator took off when it did, because everyone was relying on slower but more thorough graveyard hate. In a format where the primary graveyard hate is Surgical or Faerie Macabre, BR loses a lot of it's value.  There's no way to be faster than Faerie Macabre, and if you combo off and fail you don't reload nearly as well as a deck with Ponder and Brainstorm.

Personally I think the Show and Tell sideboard is the best board plan for both builds, which means if you're trying to get into the deck there's a TON of crossover. Buy one of them and slowly work towards the other, then allow yourself to shift between them as necessary, and you'll be the best prepared reanimator player you can be.

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Tournament Report: GP Louisville with BR Reanimator

This weekend, like many legacy players, I made the trip to Louisville to play legacy.  My preferred deck of ANT is positioned somewhat poorly these days, so I found myself playing a more aggressive combo deck.  Here's the decklist I used for the event.



Spells Lands
Creatures
4 Griselbrand
4 Chancellor of the Annex
1 Sire of Insanity
1 Elesh Norn, Grand Cenobite
1 Iona, Shield of Emeria
Reanimation
4 Reanimate
4 Exhume
3 Animate Dead
Discard Outlets
4 Faithless Looting
4 Entomb
Discard
4 Unmask
2 Thoughtseize
2 Collective Brutality
Fast Mana
4 Dark Ritual
4 Lotus Petal
4 Polluted Delta
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Badlands
1 Underground Sea
2 Swamp
Sideboard
4 Show and Tell
3 Blood Moon
2 Echoing Truth
2 Simian Spirit Guide
1 Firestorm
1 Blazing Archon
1 Ashen Rider
1 Grave Titan

All in all, a fairly typical BR Reanimator list with a few interesting decisions.  In the maindeck, I elected to play Elesh Norn and Iona instead of Tidespout Tyrant.  This cost me a slot elsewhere (In testing I went back and forth between cutting the 4th Griselbrand or the 4th Animate Dead, in the tournament I elected to play the 4th Griselbrand).  I strongly prefer Elesh Norn and Iona to Tidespout because they lock the game out in ways he doesn't.  Tidespout is significantly better against Lands than either of them, but in almost all other matchups I like the pair of white creatures.

In the sideboard I settled on Show and Tell for the Eldrazi matchup.  I tested both the green and white splashes extensively, and I found that I very rarely won matches in which my opponent resolved a hate permanent, I drew my answer to that hate permanent, and I also drew my combo and was able to combo off after answering the hate.  Stronghold Gambit was a great way to sidestep that, which I liked for a long time, but I eventually went with Show and Tell because of how bad Gambit was against Eldrazi.  Being able to side 4 Show and Tell and 4 Echoing Truth (which answers both chalice and leyline) against Eldrazi put the matchup as close to even as I felt was possible.  It's still not good, but winnable.  The Show and Tell board plan is largely responsible for my decision to play the 4th Griselbrand.  If I'm relying on drawing Griselbrand specifically, and not equally happy to draw him or Entomb, then I want to maximize my chances of having him in hand.

The other major sideboard decision was playing Blood Moon.  Obviously I tried this vs Eldrazi, because it's very strong there, but shutting off my hate for their permanents was too great a cost.  On the other hand, I found it was the best answer for Deathrite Shaman vs any Delver deck.  It's an absolute must-counter.  I sided in the Simian Spirit Guides with it to help power it out and pay for Daze.  Extra mana is often as good as discard against Delver decks.

The sideboard guide I used for this tournament can be found here.  There are obviously some changes I'd make at this point, most notably to the Elves plan (and I'd add a section for Maverick that would probably be identical to Elves), but on the whole I'm happy with it.

The Tournament


I had a rough start, dropping my first two rounds to matchups I felt pretty good about, then rebounded well and made day two.  I won't give you a game by game breakdown, but here's what I faced and how I fared.

1 - Maverick (L)
2 - Grixis Delver (L)
3 - Lands (W)
4 - Storm (W)
5 - Lands (W)
6 - Sneak and Show (W)
7 - Death and Taxes (W)
8 - Belcher (L)
9 - UR Delver (W)
10 - 4C Deathblade (W)
11 - BR Reanimator (W)
12 - Elves (L)
13 - UB Reanimator (W)
14 - Elves (L)
15 - Sneak and Show (W)

Interestingly enough, I didn't face Miracles or Eldrazi the entire tournament.  I sat next to them quite a bit, just never paired up. I had some fairly predictable results (5-1 vs combo, losing only to Belcher when I kept three turn-2 hands and lost to three turn-1 hands, two of which went off turn 1 through disruption).  Even without Tidespout Tyrant I went 2-0 vs lands, though both matches were much closer than they would have been if I had Tyrant in the 75.

I lost to all three Deathrite Shaman + Basic Forest decks that I played against.  This is absolutely because I was not sideboarding appropriately for them.  I didn't get nearly as much testing with Show and Tell as I would have liked because I couldn't afford Show and Tells online.  I naively assumed my basic forest matchup would be good, and didn't actually test it.  2 Collective Brutality and 1 Firestorm simply isn't enough, and that's essentially all I had.  I did some additional testing this week at my local shop, and I'm confident the Show and Tells have to come in there.  I need to test more to see how well it actually works or if the entire board needs to be rethought, but for the most part those decks aren't going to punish the Show and Tell plan as much as the reanimation plan, and I need to plan appropriately.

Highlights & Lowlights


Nobody needs to hear the complete play by play, but I did have several stellar moments that highlighted an excellent weekend.

  • In round 15 I beat a deck game 1 that only showed me Polluted Delta, 2x Volcanic Island, Brainstorm, and Spell Pierce.  I sided for Sneak and Show, though it could've been UR Delver, but those two sideboard plans are essentially the same.  Game 2 on the play he plays City of Traitors, Lotus Petal, Show and Tell.  I get to choose between putting in Griselbrand of Ashen Rider, go with the Rider, destroy his Omniscience, and then combo off the next turn to get a Griselbrand to go with him.
  • In round 10 I played the BR mirror, which was hilarious because we both kept turn 2 combo hands that relied on Exhume.  We stared at eachother for a while before he pulled the trigger and we both got Griselbrands.  His only followup was a Sire of Insanity, so I got to try and do silly stuff too.  I drew 14 cards, 0 fast mana, and died to his fast mana the next turn.
  • In round 13 I beat a UB Reanimator player when we both played very poorly and somehow ended up with a pair of Iona's staring at each other naming black.  That standoff usually ends up going to whoever attacks first, and that was me.  It was quite the board state though.
  • In round 3 I unmasked my Lands opponent (postboard) and saw Diamond, Diamond, Forest, Loam, Maze, Maze, Tabernacle.  I couldn't combo off that turn, at which point I'm fairly confident the only card I could reasonably play in my 75 that beats that hand is Blood Moon.  Lucky for me, I had a copy handy and won easily.
  • In round 8 my Belcher opponent put me on the play after losing game 1.  I thoughtseize him and see Taiga, Simian Spirit Guide, Simian Spirit Guide, Tinder Wall, Tinder Wall, Gitaxian Probe, Gitaxian Probe.  I take a Probe and pass.  He draws, probes me, then casts a Charbelcher leaving a Tinder Wall and tapped Taiga in play.  As I have foolishly not sided in Ashen Rider, I lose.  doh!
  • In round 5 I reanimate a Blazing Archon against lands, then immediately get Ghost Quartered into oblivion.  He has a Maze of Ith keeping me from killing him, but he can't kill me either.  I have Blood Moon and Simian Spirit Guide in hand, but can't draw two more mana.  We spend at least 10 draw steps staring at eachother as I look for mana and he looks for Tabernacle.  He eventually stops loaming, draws off the top, it's Gamble, and I lose.

Conclusions


I was very happy with the list and my decision to play it.  As I've already mentioned, the Elves/Maverick board plan was a mistake, and that's the kind of thing that happens when you change your deck at the last minute.

My biggest takeaway from the event was how bad Faithless Looting was for me all day.  I was already boarding it out against Delver decks because those decks are prepared to trade 1 for 1 with you all day, and the card disadvantage was adding up too quickly for me to interact.  I tested a lot against Delver, and my win percentage went up notably when I started siding out Looting. 

More generally though, Looting is a pretty big liability games 2-3 in a format where almost all decks can be reasonably expected to have surgical extraction in the 75.  I lost one game where I ended up reanimating a chancellor instead of a Griselbrand because I was trying to bait a surgical he didn't have, and I lost another because my hand simply didn't have a sequence available that could strip the surgical before I cast the looting, so he responded to my unmask with a surgical taking the Griselbrand I had just discarded.  With this in mind, I tested a monoblack maindeck last night at my local shop.  I went 3-1, losing again to Deathrite Shaman + Basic Forest.  We tested the Show and Tell plan afterwards and things went much better for me.

I'll be writing an article about the monoblack list as soon as I have a chance to play a few more games with it.  Until then, happy BReanimating!

Monday, July 18, 2016

How Bad Was Mental Misstep, Really?

This is a repost of a breakdown I did re: Mental Misstep and how bad it was, back when we were discussing how bad Treasure Cruise and Dig Through Time were, and whether they needed to be banned.
-----

Figured I'd put a little effort into answering this question, since I was curious. Here's what I found.

Misstep
Here are the top 16 decklists from the last 3 SCG Opens before Misstep was banned.
SCG Atlanta - September 10-11
Top 16 Decklists
  • Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 11
  • Blue Decks with 3 Misstep - 2
  • Blue Decks with 2 Misstep - 0
  • Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 0
  • Non-Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 2
SCG Boston- August 20-21
Top 16 Decklists
  • Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 9
  • Blue Decks with 3 Misstep - 5
  • Blue Decks with 2 Misstep - 0
  • Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 0
  • Non-Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 0
  • Non-Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 2 Misstep (board) - 1
SCG Richmond - August 13-14
Top 16 Decklists
  • Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 5
  • Blue Decks with 3 Misstep - 2
  • Blue Decks with 2 Misstep, 3rd in Board - 1
  • Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 4 Misstep - 1
  • Non-Blue Decks with 0 Misstep - 6
Cruise / Dig
Compare that to the 3 tournaments we've had with TC/DTT valid. Obviously the first two weeks nobody but Bob believed in Cruise, so you can mostly ignore those, but I went to the effort of calculating them so I included them.
SCG Worcester - October 18-19
Top 16 Decklists[4]
  • Blue Decks with 4 Cruise - 4
  • Blue Decks with 3 Cruise - 2
  • Blue Decks with 2 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Dig - 1
  • Blue Decks with 0 Cruise, 0 Dig - 4
  • Non-Blue Decks - 5
SCG New Jersey - September 27-28
Top 16 Decklists[5]
  • Blue Decks with 4 Cruise - 1
  • Blue Decks with 3 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Cruise - 1
  • Blue Decks with 2 Dig - 0
  • Blue Decks with 1 Dig - 1
  • Blue Decks with 0 Cruise, 0 Dig - 7
  • Non-Blue Decks - 6
SCG Indianapolis - September 27-28
Top 16 Decklists[6]
  • Blue Decks with 4 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 3 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Cruise - 0
  • Blue Decks with 2 Dig - 1
  • Blue Decks with 1 Dig - 0
  • Blue Decks with 0 Cruise, 0 Dig - 7
  • Non-Blue Decks - 8
Conclusions
  • Misstep really did dominate the format. I'd almost let myself forget how crazy it was, this was a good exercise.
  • Cruise could be on it's way to the same fate, but it's not there yet. Obviously there's a big shift from the first week of availability, but I don't nkow that we can expect that pace to continue.
  • Importantly, there really wasn't a good nonblue way to fight misstep, while a deck like Death and Taxes may still have good ways to fight cruise (Thalia makes it harder to cantrip your way to a full graveyard, for example).
  • Small sample size, of course, but if you look at the two tournaments the weekend of September 27/28, you'll notice that we actually had a pretty decent blend of nonblue decks and blue decks. We should keep an eye on things going forward and see how much that changes as a result of Cruise and Dig.

Saturday, August 22, 2015

How much does it cost to maintain a Legacy collection?

    Today I got into a discussion on reddit that tangentially touched on the reserved list.  In response to a comment that Wizards didn't care about legacy and vintage players because they don't buy new cards, someone pointed out that they're constantly printing new cards for those formats.  It got me thinking, just how much money does Wizards actually make off of me?  For context, I don't play standard.  I don't play modern, vintage, or limited either.  In fact, the only competitive magic I play is legacy.  For the purposes of this discussion I'm ignoring my cube and focusing on legacy alone.
    I don't actually remember when I stopped buying old cards and got my collection up to date, but it was some time inbetween Innistrad and Return to Ravnica.  I'm going to take this back to Innistrad but only count cards I bought as they were printed, so the Sinkholes I know I bought in January of 2013 don't count :)  Below are the Legacy "playable" cards that I purchased between the summer of 2011 and now, and the approximate price I paid.  This is the actual price I remember paying per card, not the lowest price they were ever at.  You'll see where I occasionally got great deals and where I occasionally lost a lot of money, but I figure looking at actual results is way more interesting than some theoretical perfect investor's record.
    It's possible I left something off so if you see some staple missing that I just forgot about, let me know.  I'm pretty sure I covered it all though.
   
  • Innistrad
    • 4 Liliana of the Veil $22
    • 4 Snapcaster Mage $18
    • 2 Nevermore $2
    • 4 Past in Flames $2 
    • 4 Geist of Saint Traft $15
    • 1 Stony Silence $1
  • Dark Ascension
    • 2 Grafdigger's Cage $8 
    • 4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben $3
  • Avacyn Restored 
    • 4 Griselbrand $12 
    • 2 Craterhoof Behemoth $8
    • 4 Terminus $3
    • 3 Entreat the Angels $8
    • 4 Temporal Mastery $25
    • 4 Misthollow Griffin $1
    • 4 Cavern of Souls $20
  • M13
    • 4 Omniscience $8
  • Planechase 2012
    • 4 Baleful Strix $2
    • 4 Shardless Agent $2
  • Return to Ravnica
    • 8 Abrupt Decay $8
    • 8 Deathrite Shaman $12
    • 4 Rest in Peace $2
    • 4 Golgari Charm $0.50
    • 1 Slaughter Games $1 
    • 4 Supreme Verdict $3
  • Gatecrash
    •  4 Enter the Infinite $2
    • 4 Thespian's Stage $1
  • Dragon's Maze
    • 2 Wear/Tear $1 
    • 1 Ruric Thar, the Unbowed $1
    • 1 Notion Thief $1
  • M14
    • 4 Young Pyromancer $1 
  • Commander 2013
    • 4 True-Name Nemesis $15 (bought 4 mind seize sets and resold the boxes for $20 without the TNNs)  
    • 1 Toxic Deluge $11
  • Theros
    • 4 Swan Song $2
  • Born of the Gods
    • 4 Spirit of the Labyrinth $2 
  • Journey Into Nyx
    • 1 Keranos, God of Storms $8 
  • Conspiracy
    • 1 Dack Fayden $22
    • 1 Council's Judgment $9
  • M15
    • 2 Reclamation Sage $0.50 
    • 4 Chief Engineer $1 (don't judge me)
  • Khans of Tarkir
    • 4 Treasure Cruise $1
    • 4 Dig Through Time $8 
    • 4 Jeskai Ascendancy $1
  • Fate Reforged
    • 4 Gurmag Angler $0.50
    • 2 Tasigur, the Golden Fang $9 
    • 3 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon $28
  • Dragons of Tarkir
    • 1 Kolaghan's Command $2
    • 3 Sidisi, Undead Vizier $5
  • Magic Origins
    • 4 Molten Vortex $1.50
    • 4 Dark Petition $2

The following cards are ones that a legacy player might have purchased during this time, but I didn't, mostly because I haven't felt the need to play the the decks they would go in lately.
  • Vryn Wingmare
  • Monastery Mentor
  • Eidolon of the Great Revel
  • Containment Priest 
  • Mana Confluence
  • Brimaz, King of Oreskos
Even with some really bad buys ($100 on Temporal Mastery alone and the Geists of Saint Traft that were only relevant for about a year), that's still only $1102 spent over 4 years maintaining a legacy collection.  That breaks down to $275.50/year and $22.95/month.  It's still not a cheap hobby by any stretch, but I'd wager if you took a poll of current standard players and asked how much they were spending on cards, the vast majority of them are spending more than $22.95 a month.

In fact, if you look closely you can see that this is all heavily tilted towards 2011/2012, where Innistrad and Avacyn Restored were loaded with $20+ mythics I bought.  From Innistrad to Planechase 2012 I spent $593.  From Return to Ravnica forward, I spent $509.  That means in the 3 years from Return to Ravnica to Magic Origins, I averaged  $169.67 a year, or $14.14 a month.

I don't really have a point for all of this, I just found it kind of interesting to sit down and work out.  The numbers are pretty much where I expected them to be.  This obviously ignores the cost of getting the initial collection going, but that part has been covered over and over and I don't think I've ever seen anyone break down these numbers quite like this. I hope you found it interesting, if not particularly useful or relevant.

Thursday, August 13, 2015

Legacy Brew Spotlight: Dark and Stormy

Lately I've been a little bored with my available options in legacy, so last night I decided to try something goofy at my local shop.  I was playing around with Dark Petition in storm, and while I liked it in Caleb Scherer's ANT list, I felt like there was more that could be done with it.  After some quick googling, I happened upon this article from Carsten Kotter, where he goes through several potential storm builds.  I decided to take a tweaked version of his Legacy Perfect Storm decklist to the tournament.  Here's what I played.


Spells Lands
Card Selection
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Preordain
2 Dig Through Time
1 Sensei's Divining Top
Interaction
4 Force of Will
2 Duress
2 Thoughtseize
Mana
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Lotus Petal
2 Rain of Filth
Action
4 Dark Petition
1 Past in Flames
1 Tendrils of Agony
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
2 Island
1 Swamp
Sideboard
3 Xantid Swarm
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Massacre
2 Flusterstorm
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Tropical Island

Considering I started building this at 5:30pm, and the tournament started at 7:00pm, there are obviously several things I'll change before playing it again, but it was a perfectly good place to start.  I know tournament reports are usually pretty boring but it's hard to explain how the deck actually plays out without one.  I've tried to include conclusions about the deck's construction as they came up during the rounds.  Here's how things went.

Round 1
U/B Countertop Control

This was a regular at our shop who has an extensive legacy collection and never plays established decks, so I had no idea what to expect.  I mulled to five (seeing no lands) and had to keep 3 lands, Dark Petition, Force of Will.  We started off both with undergrounds, fetches, brainstorms, thoughtseizes, and forces, mostly just generically good blue and black cards.  Around turn 5 or 6 he brainstormed, then cast Counterbalance/Top back to back, which I was unable to respond to.  We played draw go for a while, he eventually stuck a True-Name Nemesis and started threatening my life total slowly.

The turn before he killed me I manage to bait a counterspell and a top flip with two Dark Rituals, respond with Rain of Filth, then sacrifice all of my lands, play a few Lotus Petals, and cast Dark Petition for a natural Tendrils kill.

Game 2 he mulliganed, then I led on a turn 1 Divining Top.  He played a turn two counterbalance, but I just spun the top every turn until I had the kill and a decay, cast decay EOT, then untapped and killed him with Force backup in case his last card in hand was Counterspell.  That hand wouldn't have beaten Flusterstorm, but thankfully he didn't have it.

Surprisingly, both hands won with natural tendrils kills, no Past in Flames.  It helped that he did some damage to himself both times with probes and thoughtseizes, but I was still impressed with the deck's ability to combo off without the traditional pieces.

Round 2
Shardless BUG

Game 1 went the way all Storm vs Shardless matchups go: he didn't draw Hymn to Tourach, so I won.

Game 2 I faced graveyard hate for the first time.  I kept a one lander with a preordain, shipped two nonlands to the bottom, didn't find a 2nd, and got wastelanded.  Fortunately for me he'd kept a two lander with one being the wasteland, and he couldn't find a second for a while.  He eventually played a Nihil Spellbomb and had to choose between leaving my yard alone so he could pop it in response to hurt Cabal Ritual and Dark Petition, or nuking the yard early to draw a card and look for land and keep me from casting the Dig Through Time he knew about.  He decided to blow it early, I discarded the dig to hand size, then eventually found a land, cantripped into a second, and used rain of filth to get my cabal rituals to threshold, then cast Dark Petition for Past in Flames.

I was surprised by what the Dig Through Time did for the decision with the Nihil Spellbomb.  I think he made the wrong choice, but it's still interesting that the digs are able to force people to behave differently with regards to graveyard hate.  He also aggressively used Deathrite on his turn to keep my yard small instead of holding it back to snipe something in response to a spell, which didn't end up being relevant but could've been.

Round 3
4 Color Delver

Game 1 I made a terrible keep, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual, Force of Will, Gitaxian Probe, 3 fetches.  He leads on a delver, I probe and see double force double blue card, never draw anything but land and rituals after that point and quickly die to the delver.  Uninteresting from a deck design standpoint.

Game 2 I keep a hand with Dark Ritual, Force, Dark Petition, Brainstom, Brainstorm, Ponder, land.  I fetch up a land and ponder into a second land and a second dark petition, take the land and pass.  He probes me, sees that I've got a slow developing hand, plays a delver and passes back.  I draw the Dark Petition, then brainstorm into Petal, Ritual, Probe.  I probe him and see absolutely no relevant interaction, just creatures and a pyroblast (he's tapped out).  I cast Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual, Dark Petition (getting Cabal Ritual), Cabal Ritual, Dark Petition (getting Tendrils), Petal, Tendrils for exactly 18.  (he probed).  Another natural tendrils kill, 3 on the day.

Game 3 I mull to 5, keep a hand with two lands, tendrils, preordain, and past in flames.  He leads on a mainphase brainstorm then passes back.  I preordain and he dazes.  He replays his land and plays a delver, I draw a ritual, play a land, and pass.  He doesn't flip delver, then plays two more delvers.  I draw another ritual and realize that i'm one mana short of killing the following turn if he has no interaction.  He of course flips all 3 delvers with a force of will off the top, swings for 9, and passes back.  I draw a lotus petal.  If Lotus Petal and the first cabal ritual resolve, then I can win through the force of will because I have enough mana to cast the Past in Flames and the Tendrils, but he's smart and counters the first cabal ritual leaving me stuck.  Oh well.

Round 4
Imperial Taxes

Game 1 my opponent mulls to 5 on the draw.  I cantrip and pass, he plays a Vial and passes back.  I cantrip again and find a force of will for Thalia, but on his turn two he doesn't have one.  I play another land and pass back, a little light on interaction.  His turn 3 he plays a 3rd land and casts Imperial Recruiter (which will probably get Thalia and then immediately enter play because of the vial on 2).  I Force Imperial Recruiter.  This is the first time all day Force has done anything special, but it definitely did something regular ANT wouldn't have been able to do very easily.  I would've needed a probe before a therapy to tag the recruiter, since therapy would absolutely have named Thalia in the dark instead of recruiter. 

He doesn't draw anything else relevant and I find the combo pretty quickly after that.

Game 2 I mull to 5, he has a turn 2 thalia.  I find a removal spell for thalia but he kills me anyway before I can put together the win.

Game 3 I'm back on the play, I probe him turn 1 and see a hand of Vial, Canonist, Thalia, Rest in Peace, three lands.  I play a fetch and pass the turn with a hand of Brainstorm, Dark Ritual, Cabal Ritual, Past in Flames, Dark Petition, second fetch, which is one ritual off of a turn 2 kill.  He plays the vial and passes back, I brainstorm into a second dark ritual, tendrils, brainstorm.  Put the brainstorm and tendrils back, untap, draw the tendrils, and it's academic from here. 

---

I ended up at 3-1, with my loss coming to a mull to 5 that featured a lucky force of will flip combined with a bad decision not to mulligan, which seems pretty good to me.  I think there are some really good things about this deck to consider going forward, so here are my thoughts in no particular order.

  • I had three natural storm kills without Past in Flames and two Turn 2 kills.  Both numbers are higher than I expected.  The turn two kill R3G2 would not have been possible with Infernal Tutor over Dark Petition, which is neat.
  • I only cast Force relevantly once, but it definitely had a huge impact on the game.  Being able to avoid a Thalia game 1 against death and taxes without getting lucky enough to tag it with therapy turn 1 is a big deal.  I liked having it, but I did find myself with Force but no blue card in hand several times.  It's possible only playing 3 is correct, or maybe replacing the 4th with Pact of Negation as Ari Lax suggested in one of his articles.  More games are definitely required to figure out this balance.
  • I only cast Dig Through Time once all day, but it was a sweet extra card to have available.
  • I'd like to add a single Grim Tutor to this list.  Probably where the Top is main, but maybe over the 2nd Preordain or 2nd Dig.  I'm not positive it's necessary but I think it could be good.  The lifeloss is less of a big deal without Ad Nauseam in the list.  The only reason I didn't play one last night was that I didn't think about it until I was at the shop and I had left my only copy at home.
  • The sideboard obviously needs help.  I included Empty the Warrens to give me something to do against Rest in Peace or Leyline, since I was pretty all-in on Past in Flames, not realizing that Cabal Ritual and Dark Petition's graveyard reliance means I'm incredibly unlikely to do anything with a single Empty the Warrens.  The sideboard alternate win-con absolutely needs to have no reliance on the graveyard.  I think most likely it should be Young Pyromancers.  Xantid Swarm is far less necessary than in previous iterations of the deck because of the Forces, we can move the Tropical Island to the main, and only play a single Flusterstorm and that buys 4 slots.  Death and Taxes will still be a little rough because they have RiP but Pyromancer won't be very good against them, so I'll have to think about that more (definitely open to suggestions)
  • I'm not 100% sold on the discard configuration.  I do think having Force of Will means I'm more interested in playing targeted discard than Cabal Therapy, even though I'm still playing the probes, but maybe I'm wrong.  Maybe I should be playing more Thoughtseizes and fewer Duresses, but I feel like that only really matters versus Death and Taxes, and even then only game 1 because I'd usually rather answer their things on the board than try to get lucky and catch them in their hand turn 1.
  • I'm sure the deck name won't stick and if anyone ever does well at an SCG event they'll call it "Dark Ritual Combo" or something equally useless for comparing it to other storm decks, but I'm calling it Dark and Stormy for now because it fits and I like rum.
I'm definitely interested in thoughts from other people on the list, if you've tried anything similar and results if you give it a shot.  As of right now, this is what I'm thinking the decklist will look like next time I play. I'd like to find room for a second top but I'm not sure where. I figure I'll find out of the Grim is worth it and if it isn't I'll just go back to the top in that slot.

Spells Lands
Card Selection
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
2 Preordain
2 Dig Through Time
Interaction
4 Force of Will
2 Duress
2 Thoughtseize
Mana
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Lotus Petal
2 Rain of Filth
Action
4 Dark Petition
1 Past in Flames
1 Tendrils of Agony
1 Grim Tutor
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
2 Underground Sea
2 Volcanic Island
1 Tropical Island
1 Island
1 Swamp
Sideboard
4 Young Pyromancer
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Massacre
2 Xantid Swarm
1 Flusterstorm
1 Chain of Vapor
1 Sensei's Divining Top

Sunday, May 24, 2015

How do I know if my brew is Ready?

This post was inspired by a comment response I made in /r/legacy last week.  Apologies to those of you who don't speak legacy, but as it's the only format I play, I don't have any examples from other formats.


I brew a lot of decks.  I self identify as a Johnny/Spike (see this article if you don't know what that means).  I want to create something new and unique and I want to put my touch on every deck I play.  That said, I still want to win.  I always want to win.  Depending on the quality of the deck, sometimes I'm content with 2-2 and sometimes I think it should go 4-0, but I'm never content with just playing the deck if it can't put up results.

My quest for the next big thing means I'm always trying strange things at my local shop's weekly tournaments.  I've had to develop some shortcuts to figure out which decks are worth sleeving up and taking to the shop, though, because I still only get one shot a week to play something goofy and I want it to be worth it.  Once I've articulated a basic idea for what my deck concept does, whether it's a new combo deck or based around some underexplored synergy, I put together 60 cards, goldfish them a few times, and then ask myself the following questions.
  1. What exactly does this deck DO? There should be a basic plan that you can articulate. This is probably the same sentence that articulated your original idea.  Some classic examples are below.
    • Sneak and Show wants to put a single game winning threat into play with Sneak Attack or Show and Tell, and devotes all cards other than those 16 combo pieces to protection and filtering.
    • Delver wants to play one or maybe two aggressive threats and protect them until it wins while disrupting your mana to prevent you from stopping them.
    • Elves wants to play a hybrid combo/aggro deck that can win in one fell swoop with Craterhoof Behemoth but has a solid backup plan of attacking with guys they can flood the board with.
  2. How exactly does an average game against the 2 or 3 best decks of different strategies in the format go? Right now, I'd be asking how an average game against RUG, Miracles, and OmniTell would go. You don't have to be right, but you should have a one or two sentence answer that would describe it. 
    • If I were building mono green 12post, for example, I'd say about my Miracles matchup "I'll use all of my cheap spells to make land drops consistently, force them to counter every spell that would put a Primeval Titan in play, and win as soon as I resolve a Primeval or get enough mana and an Eye of Ugin".
    • If I were building Grixis Control I'd say about my RUG matchup "As long as I'm able to make my land drops I'll use True-Name Nemesis and Baleful Strix to control Tarmogoyf and Nimble Mongoose, I'll use burn spells to control Delver of Secrets, and eventually I'll use Dig Through Time to pull ahead on cards against a deck that has no built in card advantage"
  3. IF everything goes right, why would this deck be better than $SimilarDeck?  Most decks you come up with are close to something.  Aggro/Combo/Prison/Control/Tempo, the established archetypes have all been built around before.  Look at the closest deck to what you're building and explain why I should try it.  Cool Factor shouldn't apply here.  This doesn't have to be a perfect answer, and there will always be holes in it, but you should at least be able to create a theoretical situation where what you're doing is better than what's already out there.
    •  Recently I built a U/B Omnitell deck with 4 Dream Halls, 4 Griselbrand, and 2 Tendrils of Agony. My answer to why it would be better than normal Omnitell is that it gets to win the turn it combos off more often as well as playing a full sideboard instead of losing space to a wishboard.  It's backup plan of just Show and Telling Griselbrand is also better than regular OmniTell's backup plan of . . . . losing.
    •  I've put a lot of work into a U/W Chief Engineer prison/aggro deck.  It's very similar to Death and Taxes.  If it's better than D&T, it's because it has actual ramp to get to it's bigger spells (Mox Opal, Chief Engineer) and it's mana denial can also act as answers to creatures (Vedalken Certarch). 
  4. How likely is it that everything will go right? Once you know what your dream scenario is, how likely is it, and what happens when it doesn't go that way? The difference between Jund's dream scenario and below average game is a lot smaller than the difference between Belcher's dream scenario and below average game. Both of those are viable decks, you just need to understand what you're building and plan accordingly. If you're just as unlikely as Belcher to hit your dream scenario, then you'd better win the game when it happens. You don't want a situation where it's rare for everything to go just right, and when it finally does you just find yourself in a slightly advantageous board position.

There's no right answer to all of these questions, but asking them is the first step to noticing problems.  Once you've done this a bunch of times it'll all become second nature and you won't find yourself having to stop and ask them at the end because you caught all the problems on the way through the first time.  This test won't make your brews win every tournament you enter, but it'll prevent you from showing up with an 0-4 clunker that never has a chance.  There's nothing worse than showing up with a sweet new idea and realizing after round 1 that you're not going to win a match the rest of the night. 
I doubt much of this post is groundbreaking to any experienced brewer, but to those of you trying to get off the ground and wondering why you're not seeing real results, I hope you'll find these four questions help you show up to your local shop with a deck that's a little more ready for prime time.

Monday, January 26, 2015

Tournament Report - 8th with Grixis at SCG: DC

This weekend I played a variant on Eli Kassis's Grixis Control deck in the Legacy Premier IQ in Washington DC to an 8th place finish. I had no experience with this deck prior to the event, and basically threw it together Friday night because it looked fun and I didn't want to play my usual Storm deck in a field I expected to be full of people excited to cast Hymn to Tourach again.

Obviously Eli's list isn't viable as is anymore because of the banning, but I felt like playing 4 Dig Through Time might be good in the same shell. Because of the shifted metagame, I also wanted more answers to Tarmogoyf than he originally played, and after much debate I settled on Terminate. Abrupt Decay has proven that 2CMC removal spells are viable, and with 5 burn spells to handle early threats I felt like I wouldn't be forced to run my Terminates into Dazes all that often, which is where Decay shines. I also increased my brick wall creatures by playing an extra Baleful Strix and an extra True-Name Nemesis. I wasn't sold on Dack Fayden, but I played the one copy because he is awesome and I was hoping that wanting him to be good would result in him actually being good.

I settled on this decklist.

Spells Lands
Creatures (10)
2 Baleful Strix
2 Snapcaster Mage
2 True-Name Nemesis
4 Young Pyromancer

Planeswalkers (1)
1 Dack Fayden

Spells(32)
4 Dig Through Time
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe
1 Preordain

4 Lightning Bolt
1 Forked Bolt
2 Terminate

3 Cabal Therapy

4 Force of Will
1 Counterspell
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Flooded Strand
4 Volcanic Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Island
Sideboard
3 Pyroblast
2 Hydroblast
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Null Rod
1 Notion Thief
1 Smash to Smithereens
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Cabal Therapy
1 Massacre
1 Sudden Demise


Round 1 - Jameson Helfrich - U/R Delver

Like all delver decks, I felt advantaged in this matchup.  Strix and Nemesis present great walls they can't get through, and we have enough cheap removal to get to the bigger stuff.  I got game 1 after he got a hot start but ran out of gas.  Lost game two because I left Dack Fayden in the deck, drew him in my opener, and made a bad keep with a slow hand on the draw that I should've mulliganed because he had a very good start.  Got game 3 after fixing my sideboard and drawing removal early for his delver and swiftspear.

-1 Dack Fayden
-1 Gitaxian Probe
-4 Force of Will

+3 Pyroblast
+2 Hydroblast
+1 Sudden Demise

Round 2 - Chris Keller - Shardless BUG

I expected this to be a more difficult matchup than it was.  Lightning Bolt kept Deathrite in check, Terminate did a god job of handling Tarmogoyf.  He never resolved an Ancestral the entire match, and I cast a lot of dig through times.  At least twice I 2-for-1'd myself with burn spells to kill Jaces, but was able to get enough card advantage back from Digs that I got there anyway.  Overall I would say this matchup is even at best, and that I got fairly lucky that he didn't draw well.  In game 2 he had a sylvan library in play and couldn't find a 3rd land (and I was putting enough pressure on that he couldn't pay a bunch of life for cards).  In game 3 he spent a lot of time with green cards in hand and no green land, and I kept killing his Deathrites that would've helped him.

-1 Dack Fayden (even though he can take strixes)
-4 Force of Will (relying on Pyroblast for Jace, don't want Force vs the Hymn deck)

+3 Pyroblast
+1 Vendilion Clique
+1 Notion Thief

Round 3 - Shawn Casey - Junk

The highlight of this match: Game 1, turn 4.  Opponent says "here's a card you don't see in legacy often" and casts Siege Rhino.  It resolves, I get helixed.  I respond "here's another one" and cast terminate.  Won 2-0 after we both played discard on eachother to get to basically hellbent, and then I was playing Brainstorm, Ponder, and Dig Through Time and he wasn't.  I had some nutty Cabal Therapies that really helped here.

-4 Force of Will


+1 Sudden Demise
+1 Cabal Therapy
+1 Vendilion Clique
+1 Nihil Spellbomb

I didn't particularly want the clique or spellbomb here, I just didn't want Force vs his 10-12 discard spell deck.  I figured Siege Rhino was the biggest problem for me to deal with and between 4 Therapies, 2 Terminates, 1 Counterspell, and 2 Strixes I could probably handle it without Force.


Round 4 - Zack Kanner - RUG Delver

The RUG matchup is all about making my land drops.  If the game goes long, I almost can't lose.  Both games he kept hands that led on Ponders and were light on mana denial, I managed to land TNNs and Strixes and buy enough time for Dig Through Time to take over the game.

-4 Force of Will
-1 Dack Fayden

+3 Pyroblast
+2 Hydroblast

In testing I wasn't sure if I wanted Hydroblast in this matchup becuase it hits so few spells, but everything it hits is very important.  Countering a single burn spell thrown at pyromancer can win the game on it's own.  Plus RUG sometimes plays things like Sulfuric Vortex out of the board and having answers to that if necessary seems good.  I don't know that I'd rush to side them in if I didn't have space, but there's no reason to keep Dack or Force in this matchup, and they fill an excellent role.

Round 5 - Doug Azzano - Blaverick

I classify this as Black Maverick, but really who knows what the hell to call it.  It's definitely hatebears the deck.  I Cabal Therapied game one naming Knight of the Reliquary, which apparently isn't in the deck at all.  Game 1 was dumb because Doug flooded on 3 Mother of Runes and 2 Deathrites, and then just didn't draw any other threats.  I had a pyromancer out, but didn't have many instants/sorceries to fuel it, and every 1/1 I made would mean another 2 damage dealt to me by a shaman.  I finally lost when he Living Wished for Orzhov Pontiff, wiped my board, and swung with 3 moms and 2 shamans.

I got game two after he overcommitted into Massacre (which we agreed there was no logical reason for the Young Pyromancer/TNN deck to be playing), and then game 3 we ended up going to time.  I think I might've been able to pull game 3 out, but he had a Jitte on board and a Windswept Heath in play, and I shuffled away a Ponder with a Young Pyromancer that probably could've taken over because I expected him to fetch dryad arbor end of turn, equip the jitte, and hit me, so I kept looking for a burn spell that could answer the arbor.  Turns out he didn't play Green sun or Dryad Arbor at all.  The moral of these two stories is that sometimes it really pays to be the deck people don't expect.  I won a game because he didn't know what to expect out of my board, and I didn't win a game because I was playing around stuff he didn't have.

-4 Force of Will

+1 Smash to Smithereens
+1 Null Rod
+1 Massacre
+1 Sudden Demise

Round 6 - Myles Housman - RUG Delver

In round 4 I said RUG is all about making my land drops.  It is, and I didn't.  Game 1 I drew two Volcanics and an Island.  My turn 1 probe showed double wasteland, which he used on my volcanics, and I never managed to find another land before dying to mongeese.  Game 2 we both mulled to six, I kept a two lander with a probe and a ponder.  Probe reveals Fetch, Fetch, Pierce, Stifle, Snare, Ponder.  He ponders into a waste for my first land, and I never found an answer to his stifle, so my fetchland sat uselessly in play until I died without drawing another land.

I still think all delver matchups are positive with this deck, but even an 80% matchup (which this isn't) means you lose 2 out of 10, and this was one of 'em.

-4 Force of Will
-1 Dack Fayden

+3 Pyroblast
+2 Hydroblast

Round 7 - Richard Cox - Tezzeret Helm/Leyline Combo

This matchup is atrocious.  I lost game one after he played a Leyline of the Void on turn 3, then played Helm on turn 4, which I countered.  He put it on top with Academy Ruins.  I countered it again.  He put it on top again, and I didn't have a third counter.

Game 2 had an extremely unfortunate judge call.  I won't go deep into the details, but suffice to say that I screwed up maintaining the board state, he didn't catch it, and by the time we realized it and judges were called, things had progressed too far to reverse things, and the partial fix that was applied ended up heavily in my favor.  I apologized for the mistake, but we've all been there and it sucks all the way around when that happens.  I believe I would've won that game anyway, but it was still not pleasant for anyone.

Game 3 He opens with double leyline, which is essentially a mull to 5 unless he resolves a helm.  Probe reveals a helm in his hand, but he's short on mana.  I manage to stick a Pyromancer and we fight over a thopter foundry that he rebuys with Academy Ruins at least once.  The fights just generate more tokens for me, and I win while he has all of the pieces necessary to combo off in hand, and just can't get them into play.

-3 Dig Through Time
-2 Snapcaster Mage
-1 Forked Bolt
-1 Lightning Bolt
-1 Terminate
-1 Preordain

+1 Nihil Spellbomb
+1 Null Rod

+3 Pyroblast
+1 Smash to Smithereens
+1 Surgical Extraction
+1 Vendilion Clique
+1 Cabal Therapy

I went a little deep cutting most of my graveyard relevant spells.  Dig Through Time is a very important part of this deck, but if he's mulliganing to leyline some of the time anyway, I have no answers to it, and I didn't want to get stuck with a bunch of Digs in hand.  He opened both postboard games with Leylines on the board and I was very happy to draw relevant spells instead of digs.

Round 8 - Anthony Laflamme - Jeskai Control

I won a close game 1 while we were battling back and forth and I was 2for1ing myself to kill Jace.  We both resolved multiple Dig Through Times, and had tons of cards, but eventually I found a True-Name with him at 7 life, and he couldnt' find one of his 3 maindeck answers to it in time.

Game 2 He sided in the stoneforge package.  I had a fast start while he mulliganed and came out of the gates slowly.  I had a bunch of Pyromancer Tokens quickly taking over the game when he found stoneforge and searched for batterskull.  I could probably have made enough tokens to race the batterskull, but was able to cast Brainstorm into fetch into Dig Through Time, looking at 10 cards to find a copy of Lightning Bolt or Cabal Therapy to take care of it.  This is one of those cases where Dig just completely overperformed Treasure Cruise, allowing me to be incredibly selective and find the exact card I needed right then.  I found a bolt and a Force of Will, killed the stoneforge and was able to have Force of Will available for his next turn to seal the win.

-2 Terminate
-1 Forked Bolt
-2 Baleful Strix

+ Notion Thief
+3 Pyroblast
+1 Vendilion Clique

Quarterfinals - TJ Martin - Lands

The moment standings were announced and I found out I was playing TJ, I knew I was in trouble.  The decklist I ended up on is extremely soft to Lands.  Our match was pretty boring.  Game 1 he played a T1 Mox Diamond, Land, Exploration.  I forced Exploration and he passed.  He played a T2 Depths, T3 Stage, and the remaining countermagic in my hand was useless against Marit Lage

Game 2 I probe him and see Exploration, Gamble, Crop Rotation, Tabernacle, Port, and two fetches.  I force his turn 1 Exploration, Cabal Therapy his Gamble, and get a Pyromancer down with a token friend.  Unfortunately he draws a wasteland and a loam, and with the Tabernacle is able to keep me at either 1 or 2 creatures the whole game because I couldn't pay upkeep.  I eventually got him to 3 before having to give up the pyromancer and start digging for a Lightning Bolt and a fetch for my last red source, but I didn't find it before he found Marit Lage, ending my day.

-2 Terminate
-1 Forked Bolt
-1 Dack Fayden
-1 Baleful Strix

+1 Nihil Spellbomb
+1 Smash to Smithereens
+1 Surgical Extraction
+1 Vendilion Clique
+1 Cabal Therapy

Conclusions

The deck is sweet, and some version of it can exist in the metagame because of how good it naturally is against Delver.  You play control against the delver decks and you play the beatdown against the control and combo decks.  There are obviously several changes I would make.

  • Dack Fayden simply wasn't good.  I suspect he was better in this deck when fueling Cruises, but he wasn't worth the card disadvantage just to fuel Dig.  I played against only 2 Stoneforge decks, neither which had mystic as plan 1, and the 1 tezzeret deck i played against had a ton of artifacts, but not that many worth taking control of.  Controlling the Chalice of the Void doesn't help much, y'know?
  • I suspect the deck needs an 18th land.  I lost 8 games on the day.  Of those 8, 4 of them were because I didn't have enough mana to cast my spells when my opponent attacked my manabase.  It should probably be either a mountain, to help against Wasteland (and probably switch the fetches around a bit as a result), or a Wasteland.  This deck is obviously not interested in being a mana denial wasteland deck, but having access to Wasteland in the 75 would've been nice for things like Academy Ruins or Tabernacle.  Buying even a single turn without Tabernacle game 2 of the quarterfinals would've won me that game before he stabilized. 
  • I like to mention this because people sometimes read more into sideboards from these tournaments than is actually there: I never cast Notion Thief, Null Rod, Grafdigger's Cage, or Vendilion Clique all day.  I only cast Nihil Spellbomb, Smash to Smithereens, Surgical Extraction, Massacre, and Sudden Demise once each.   I leaned heavily on the blasts and the 4th Therapy, but other than that it's all pretty flexible.
  • I'd like a bounce spell in the 75.  Oddly enough I routinely felt like I would've been happy with a Cryptic Command in hand, but I don't think there's room for it in the maindeck and I'd never side it in.  Eli played Recoil, and maybe that's the right answer, but even something like Vapor Snag would've been useful at buying a turn or two against Marit Lage. 
  • Counterspell and Terminate were the last three cards in the deck, and they both dramatically overperformed.  I wouldn't play this with fewer than 2 Terminates.  I probably wouldn't play it with more than that either, but they were excellent.  
  • I never played against a traditional combo deck, so I can't speak to the Show and Tell/Storm matchups.  I suspect they're pretty decent but not amazing.
  • Even in a world without maindeck Pyroblasts everywhere, I really liked the 2 Hydroblasts in the board.  They were relevant versus bolts on my pyromancers, and while it only came up in testing and not the tournament itself, they were very relevant versus something like Blood Moon or Sulfuric Vortex.

If I were playing this deck in a tournament tomorrow, this is what I would register. If you're feeling spicy, replace the second Counterspell with a Cryptic Command or the Vapor Snag with a Recoil.


Spells Lands
Creatures (10)
2 Baleful Strix
2 Snapcaster Mage
2 True-Name Nemesis
4 Young Pyromancer

Spells(32)
4 Dig Through Time
4 Brainstorm
4 Ponder
4 Gitaxian Probe

4 Lightning Bolt
1 Forked Bolt
2 Terminate

3 Cabal Therapy

4 Force of Will
2 Counterspell
4 Polluted Delta
4 Scalding Tarn
1 Bloodstained Mire
4 Volcanic Island
3 Underground Sea
1 Mountain
1 Island
Sideboard
3 Pyroblast
2 Hydroblast
1 Grafdigger's Cage
1 Nihil Spellbomb
1 Null Rod
1 Vapor Snag
1 Smash to Smithereens
1 Surgical Extraction
1 Vendilion Clique
1 Cabal Therapy
1 Massacre
1 Sudden Demise